General Questions
Q: What is Bayes Market?
A: Bayes Market is a next-generation prediction market platform where you can trade on the probability of future events. By trading "shares" in the outcome of an event, you can profit from your foresight and contribute to the collective wisdom of the crowd.
Q: What is the mission of Bayes Market?
A: Our mission is to build epistemic infrastructure in the post-truth era by transforming human insight into a tradable asset. We believe that aggregating the collective foresight of a community provides a more accurate and transparent view of the future than traditional sources.
Q: Is Bayes Market a gambling site?
A: No. Unlike traditional gambling where you bet against "the house," Bayes Market is a financial exchange. You trade on verifiable events with other users, and prices are determined by supply and demand, reflecting the market's aggregate probability.
Q: How does Bayes Market make money?
A: Bayes Market earns revenue through a small trading fee charged on each completed trade. These fees are used to maintain and improve the platform, ensuring a robust and secure trading environment.
Getting Started
Q: How do I create an account?
A: Creating an account on Bayes Market is simple and secure. We use Privy for a non-custodial and low-friction login experience. You can sign up using your email or a social account like Google. This process automatically generates a secure crypto wallet for you, without requiring you to manage complex keys or phrases.
Q: What currency do I use to trade?
A: All trading on Bayes Market is done using our native stablecoin, BYUSD. BYUSD is pegged 1:1 to the US dollar and is fully backed by USDT, which is held in a secure third-party entity.
Q: Will Bayes Market support more currencies?
A: Currently, we only support BYUSD to ensure a streamlined and low-cost trading environment. However, we offer significant flexibility for funding your account. You can easily deposit a variety of popular stablecoins and cryptocurrencies (such as USDC and USDT) from any compatible wallet. We are continuously exploring options to expand the list of supported deposit coins in the future.
Q: How do I get BYUSD?
A: You can get BYUSD by depositing USDC/USDT or other supported coins in the list from an external wallet into your Bayes Market account. The platform automatically mints the equivalent amount of BYUSD for you to trade with.
Q: How long does it take for a deposit to be completed?
A: Deposits are usually credited to your account after a few blockchain network confirmations, which typically takes a few minutes. The exact time can vary depending on network traffic, but your funds will be available for trading very quickly.
Q: How do I withdraw my funds?
A: You can withdraw your funds at any time. When you request a withdrawal, your BYUSD is burned, and the equivalent amount of USDC is sent from our third-party account to your designated external wallet.
Trading and Markets
Q: How do prices on Bayes Market work?
A: The price of a share on Bayes Market reflects the market's collective probability of an event's outcome. A share trading at $0.75 means the market believes there is a 75% chance of that outcome occurring. The prices of all outcomes in a market always sum to $1.00.
Q: What is the advantage of using a CLOB+CTF system?
A: This hybrid system offers the best of both worlds:
Central Limit Order Book (CLOB): Provides a familiar, highly liquid trading environment with precise pricing and robust order execution, similar to traditional financial markets. This helps minimize slippage and ensures a fair market price.
Conditional Tokens Framework (CTF): Adds a powerful primitive that allows users to "split" BYUSD into outcome shares and "merge" a full set of shares back into BYUSD. This guarantees that you can always create or redeem a full position, providing a fundamental layer of liquidity that doesn't rely solely on finding a counterparty.
Q: What is the difference between a Market Order and a Limit Order?
A: A Market Order executes immediately at the best available price in the order book. A Limit Order only executes at a specific price you set, or better, and may not fill immediately.
Q: What does "Split and Merge" mean?
A: This refers to the core mechanism of our platform. You can split 1 BYUSD into a full set of outcome shares (e.g., one YES share and one NO share). Conversely, you can merge one YES share and one NO share back into 1 BYUSD, regardless of the current market prices. This provides a fundamental way to enter and exit markets.
Q: I won a market, but the profit is not showing on my PnL. What do I do?
A: A market's Profit & Loss (PnL) is updated in two steps. After a market's final outcome has been confirmed, your winning shares are made redeemable for 1 BYUSD each. To realize this profit and have it reflected in your PnL, you must manually claim your winnings. You can do this by navigating to the market page and clicking the "Claim" button. Once claimed, the funds will be added to your balance.
Q: Can I sell my shares before the market's end date?
A: Yes, you can sell your shares at any time before a market's final resolution date. You can either place a market order to sell at the current best price or a limit order to sell at a specific price. This allows you to lock in profits or cut losses as you see fit, without having to wait for the final outcome.
Q: What is an oracle?
A: In the context of prediction markets, an oracle is a system that brings real-world information onto the blockchain to determine the final outcome of a market. The Bayes Oracle is our proprietary system that resolves markets based on the objective, verifiable data sources defined in each market's rules.
Q: Where can I dispute a market outcome?
A: After a market is resolved, there is a designated dispute window. If you believe the outcome was resolved incorrectly, you can formally dispute it by providing clear, verifiable evidence that contradicts the proposed result on the specific market page. The Bayes team will then review all evidence to make a final and binding decision. You can submit your dispute through a dedicated form on the market page.
Q: What if the resolution is wrong? Will Bayes Market issue a refund?
A: If a market is resolved incorrectly due to an error in the data or a dispute being upheld, Bayes Market will issue refunds to all affected traders. Our goal is to maintain the integrity of our markets, and in the rare event of a flawed resolution, we will reverse the settlement and refund all traders in the market.
Q: Can I suggest a new market?
A: Yes! We welcome market suggestions from our community. You can submit your idea via our online form or through our community channels. We review all proposals to ensure they are objective, verifiable, and ethical before listing them.
Account & Security
Q: Which blockchain is Bayes Market built on?
A: Bayes Market is built on Arbitrum. We chose Arbitrum for its high transaction speeds, low gas fees, and robust security, which are essential for providing a seamless and cost-effective trading experience for our users.
Q: Will Bayes Market ask for my approval for transactions?
A: Yes. All on-chain transactions, such as depositing funds or withdrawing them, require your explicit approval. Our non-custodial model ensures that you are always in full control of your assets, and no funds can be moved without your digital signature.
Q: Does Bayes Market hold my money?
A: No. Bayes Market does not hold your funds in a centralized account. All funds are held in your own non-custodial wallet, which you control. Our system facilitates the trading process by creating BYUSD from your deposited USDC, but the underlying collateral remains secure and accessible to you for withdrawal.
Q: How is my account and wallet secured?
A: Your account is secured through Privy's non-custodial wallet technology, which provides a familiar login experience without compromising your ownership of the private keys. This means you have full control over your assets. The platform uses multi-signature wallets for collateral reserves and on-chain settlement for all transactions, ensuring a high level of security and transparency.
Q: Can I lose my money?
A: Yes. Trading in prediction markets, like any form of speculation, involves risk. If you hold shares in an outcome that does not occur, those shares will expire worthless, and you will lose your investment. Only trade with capital you are prepared to lose.
Q: Where can I find help or contact the Bayes Market team?
A: You can find help and contact our team through several channels:
Discord Community: Join our official Discord to chat with other users and our team.
X (formerly Twitter): You can send a direct message to our official X @BayesMarket account for support.
Support Email: For specific technical or account-related issues, you can email our support team directly at [email protected].
Community & Features
Q: Can I see what other people are trading?
A: Yes, transparency is key. Every user's profile, positions, and history are public by default and easily viewable. You can follow other traders, check their stats for insights, and interact with them in the comment sections. We encourage you to join our community to learn and share!
Q: How does the Leaderboard work?
A: The Leaderboard ranks successful traders, and all active users are included by default. Rankings are based on key performance indicators: Volume, total Trades, and overall PnL (Profit and Loss). Use it to track top performers and showcase your own skills.