Understanding the specific details of a market is the most critical step before you trade. Bayes Market provides all the necessary information to help you make informed decisions.
Each market on Bayes Market has a comprehensive set of rules that governs its resolution. This is the single most important document to read before you place a trade.
How to Read the Rules
The rules detail exactly what criteria must be met for a market to resolve to a specific outcome. They are designed to be unambiguous. Pay close attention to dates, metrics, and any specific conditions that could affect the outcome.
Verification Source: The rules also specify the exact data source that will be used to resolve the market. This could be an official government report, a specific news agency, or a public API. This ensures a neutral and verifiable outcome. For example, a market on a political election might specify The official election results published by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on or before a certain date.
Example: For a market titled "Will the S&P 500 close above 5,000 on December 31, 2025?", the market rules would specify the exact closing time, the official data source (e.g., S&P Global), and what happens in case of a data discrepancy or a non-trading day.
Do Your Research
While the market price reflects collective wisdom, a successful trader relies on their own research.
Beyond the Price: The market price is not a guarantee. Do not trade solely based on price movement.
Find and Analyze the Data: Use the market's specified verification source to conduct your own research. Read official reports, news articles, and expert analysis related to the market topic.
Community Insight: Use the "Say Something" feature to see what other traders are discussing. This can provide valuable context and highlight information you may have missed.